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What would happen if sovereign governments gave bitcoin a gold peg?
This is a totally theoretical post, but I believe it is a really interesting idea and would love to get the Internet's feedback on it, and what you think the ripple effects would be in the scenario described. Am very interested in writing this up and republishing it widely so it can be read by monetary policymakers in all major developed countries - if you know anyone like that, pass it on. In a move that would act like a bridge to a pre-Bretton Woods type of gold peg, (here is a great paper on a history of this in the US: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41887.pdf) sovereign governments with gold holdings could (again, it is a theoretical idea - I am saying they COULD do this NOT that anyone or any country is doing this that I know of) establish open market operations to purchase bitcoins (partly as a diversification strategy) using their physical gold holdings at a fixed peg rate of 5 ounces per bitcoin. The reason I say 5 is because the current chart here seems to suggest that somewhat of a convergence to 5 oz is already occurring: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=XBT&to=XAU&view=10Y If any government did this and offered to buy physically delivered bitcoins from private holders of bitcoin (no other coins just BTC) in exchange for private delivery of physical gold, then the standard governmental unit of physical gold (held in places like Fort Knox) - known as the Good Delivery Bar which is 400oz of gold - could be procured by any holder of 80 or more coins in a secure and sanctioned exchange with the government in question - the most impactful of course would be if the US did this. My theory is that any time the exchange rate mechanisms in the forex or crypto markets violated the peg, there would be arbitrage opportunities that would bring the peg back in line. It would not only stabilize BTC, but the stabilization might spread via the 24/7 exchange rate mechanism in the crypto market to stabilize many cryptos that are still somewhat worthy experimental stores of value. Depending on the strength, credit, and depth of gold holdings of whatever governments engaged in this, it would seem that such a strategy could transform bitcoin into a new type of sound money, and also signal that owning bitcoin and gold is a priority of governments as well as their citizens. The gold standard was powerful both because it was tethered to something of limited quantity in the earth's crust with unique properties, but also because pre-Bretton Woods gold standards acted very much like a peg - and the government honored the peg no matter what. So in some sense it was still the "faith and credit of the government" that made that peg work so famously. I was partly inspired by this recent award-winning documentary www.inmoneywetrust.org in formulating this idea, and partly by my own academic interest in cryptocurrency. I believe bitcoin, above all others, because of its deflationary nature and algorithmically fixed quantity, is powerful all in itself - but with a peg from a real government to a real precious metal that many governments do in fact hoard (for whatever reason) - it could become both an international currency, and a form of truly sound money backed by governments' physical gold reserves and a legal or policy commitment to a peg of 5 ounces to 1 bitcoin. What do you all think would happen if a major government or many major governments did this? Remember the idea is to convince monetary policymakers in governments to willingly and openly bypass completely the fiat currencies of their governments and to make no informational commitment to those free-floating fiat markets for forex - so the bitcoins transacted for in the peg wouldn't be bought with dollars or yen or anything that could be printed by fiat. This would simply be a convertibility guarantee by major governments that 1 bitcoin, transferred to the Treasury by a private citizen or business (again so the Treasury could diversify holdings of sound money), would be convertible and be guaranteed to be convertible to 5 oz of physical, deliverable gold bullion (or 80 bitcoins per bar). Here is a list of the largest physical gold holders on earth who could theoretically engage in this type of operation: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040715/what-countries-have-largest-gold-reserves.asp Thanks Reddit! Looking forward to your thoughts! Alex Kaufman
Hey! I’ve got a really ridiculous lecturer. He’s set an assignment to set the credit risk in currency arbitrage during COVID-19. This makes no sense to me, as quite simply I understood currency arbitrage to be taking out currency pairs and settling almost instantly? Or taking advantage of a mispost. In which case risk is so limited. He may mean forex trading but any tips on how to mitigate this type of risk?
Hi everyone! Taken a few big life decisions lately and thought I would share them here as they have a lot to do with FIRE. I guess you could call me CoastFI. Mid-30s DINK couple working in Mumbai, have been in India all my working life. No NRI story here! Spouse and I are both MBAs. The personal bit Have dreamed about taking a year off to go backpacking ever since I was 25. Given the corporate culture – was too afraid to do that till now. I have not yet reached my FIRE target the way I defined it 3 years ago. But I’ve decided to take a break and resign to go backpacking for a year. Had dreamed of a few trips for years – plan on travelling from Bombay to Beijing completely overland – through trains and buses. This was not possible till 2018 when Myanmar opened up their visa policy. Also dream of doing the Camino Santiago – it is a 500 km pilgrimage that starts from France and ends in western Spain. Both these trips will take a few months minimum so there was no way I could do them while working in the corporate world. I also want to travel to South America. I resigned from my job last week. My organization is trying to retain me by offering a new role. They have also offered to give me a 3 month sabbatical. Let’s see how it goes – I am not going to accept anything unless it is in writing. The sabbatical is being promised with too many conditions so I don’t think I am going to accept it – for example they are asking that I go on the sabbatical from April 2020 – unfortunately that means I won’t be able to do the Bombay to Beijing trip because it will be very bad weather in Myanmar at the time – so am going to wait and watch without having too high expectations. I will come back in a year and find a job. Got a call from a few recruiters and I explained my situation – they asked me to contact them once I am back so they can share any opportunities. My boss from my old company now works in E-com and has offered me a job on my return as well. My spouse will continue to work here – they recently rejoined their old boss and mentor at a job that really excites them. Till a few months ago we planned on taking the trip together but now that they got this job offer we took the joint decision for me to take this trip solo. Maybe we will take a joint trip together at 40! My spouse is incredibly supportive and has always been. I’m very very grateful that I have them on my side. The financial bit We are at 35X of normal expenses (current expenses – some buffer for Mumbai rents) and 44X of LeanFire expenses (normal expenses – discretionary travel expenses). My target is 45X of normal expenses for final FIRE. I also want to save up for a medical emergency corpus for me and my spouse, as well as for my spouse's parents who are dependent on us. The split is about 65:35 between me : my spouse (mainly because I saved about 75% right from my first job). All our corpus is from our savings from our job – no inheritance, no side hustles, no off-site, nothing. Most of our funds are in equity and debt funds, with a big chunk in VPF. Due to some past mistakes I have too much in debt (little more than 60%) and am slowly moving into equity. Not included in this corpus – my spouse also has a house in Tier 3 city bought for their parents (about 30 lacs). No plans on buying a house – we have both my spouse’s house and my parent’s house (I am an only child). We are consciously childfree, so no kid’s marriage and education goals as well. I plan on funding the trip mainly through my holdings in arbitrage funds (have a fair amount in this because I had invested in these pre-LTCG). I have got myself a NiYo card as it has zero forex fees. Will keep a few other cards as backup as well. I still have not found a good travel insurance which will cover me for such a long period. I also do not have clarity on how my VPF will be taxed in this period. A very rough estimate yields a cost of about 1.5 lacs per month for my trip. It can go lower as well because a lot of my trip is overland and I am used to budget travel – however since I am solo, would not like to compromise on safety either. This will be a dent on our corpus – but since my spouse will continue to earn and save in this period, that’s not too bad. I have personally always been a good student, Type A personality, very risk averse by nature. I can be a bit of a workaholic as well. Lately have decided to relax a bit, not be so hard on myself and enjoy life a little. This felt like the right time to do something I had dreamed about for more than a decade. I am honestly a bit nervous – what If I don’t enjoy it! What if I don’t get a good job on my return! But this is a good test run for FIRE. My HR jokingly asked me if this was a midlife crisis and I said that this was a midlife celebration instead! I have been working towards FIRE from 2010. I may not be exactly there, but the time for me to take a new step is here. Wish me luck!
I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland. I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported. Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/ Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018 Hey all! I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉 Some history before I head into the future. I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history. In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever. On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015. In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought. The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
Investors buy because the price is less than the value they see in the investment. Speculators buy because they think that someone will pay more in the future than they are paying now.
Investors trade on information (The white paper was really well-written, had a clear technical advantage over other alternatives, and addresses a need that I can understand and value.) Speculators trade on sentiment. (Buy the rumor! Sell the news!)
Investors usually look at the investment and themselves and can describe why they purchase in those terms (ABC-Coin provides (service) that isn’t addressed yet and matches (requirements) for an investment.) Speculators usually describe why they bought something in terms of how other people think (I think that other people think that the price will rise, so I want to get ahead of that.)
Investors don’t necessarily check the price every day. The can, and very often I do, but it isn’t required because fundamentals don’t often change on a dime. Speculators need to be glued to a price feed, because sentiment very often changes on a dime.
Investors like ideas, people, business plans, and market opportunities. Good ones are like Spock. Speculators like trends. They are tribal.
Investors have a longer time horizon than speculators. In cryptoland, the notion of a “longer” time horizon is still laughably small (months) compared to traditional markets, but it certainly isn’t weeks or days or hours, which is whre speculators often live.
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8. I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money. When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it. Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
ETH will still be my core holding. It is the “deepest in the stack” crypto investment that I have. “Deep in the stack” is a programming term that gets at the idea that most software is built on other software. If you just think about your notebook, you have your OS, and programs run on that. But even inside the OS there is a stack. The bottom of your stack is the kernel, and on top of that are the drivers, protocols, and other layers that allow the programs to talk to the OS, the hard drive, the screen, the mouse, your printer, etc. You can change your mouse or printer easily. Changing things deeper in the stack becomes harder and harder. ETH is deep in the crypto stack, so is very hard to dislodge – Around 60 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap run on top of Ethereum, so getting rid of Ethereum is something that would take a long time to do.
DNT, QTUM, ZRX, and OMG are all, to varying degrees, “deep in the stack” tokens that, once established, will be very hard to dislodge.
That said, I am peeling away some of my holdings into USD right now, because big changes are afoot and they are going to cause market disruptions. I’m going to come right out and admit that this is speculative, but I’m also going to back it up with some non-speculative facts.
The SEC has been sending out hundreds of subpoenas to cryptocurrency organizations over the past 3-4 months. These subpoenas are simply asking for information and nobody has been charged with any crimes or misdoings, but it is clear that the SEC is getting together information so that they can begin to regulate cryptoland. When that happens, other countries will follow, and that means:
Some tokens will be deemed outright scams and people will be prosecuted.
Some tokens will be deemed securities and will be regulated.
Some tokens will not be deemed scams or securities and will continue as they have.
Looking at this, it is clear to me that the tokens that escape prosecution and regulation should do better, but the short-term impact will be brutal and ugly. It would not surprise me at all to see a 50% drop in overall market cap within Q1-Q2, with Q1 being more likely.
Cryptoland has always been a bit nuts, but it is more nuts now than I have ever seen it. Back in 2011-2014 it was a freaks-n-geeks show where people were all about the technology and I would sit around for a 3-day weekend installing a *nix VM on my Windows machine so that I could compile the most recent source and run a CUDA SHA-256 routine rather than thrash my CPU. If that doesn’t make sense to you, you wouldn’t have even thought about being involved.
Now, people see Bitcoin advertisements in their Facebook feed and think “I gotta get on the BTC train!” before going to Coinbase and buying some with a credit card. They don’t know anything about crypto, and they are getting eaten alive – It is no coincidence that BTC peaked after the Thanksgiving holidays when people sat around the table and Janice got Uncle Mike and Cousin Bob all excited as she talked about going to Cancun for Christmas because of her crypto winnings. Huge amounts of fiat got transferred from newbies to BTC whales during this period, and once the whales were done, BTC had dropped from $20,000 to $12,000. It’s now back at $15,000, but for people who bought at a higher level, this sucks. As a result many have moved from BTC to ETH, with the single biggest money flow in crypto in December being the BTC à ETH flow. As a result, it’s no coincidence that ETH is at all-time highs now. The thing is, though, that even most people that moved from BTC to ETH really have no idea what they are doing. They are acting on buzzwords and emotion. They are speculators and are going to get crushed.
The stock market is quite high right now, but people are starting to worry that it is too high and that we are going to enter into a period of inflation again. This has caused gold to go up a lot the last quarter and is likely also responsible a bit for the rise in cryptos. If this view is correct, then cryptos stay stronger than if that pressure wasn’t there. If wrong, then cryptos will swing down as money exits cryptoland for more traditional markets.
I am spending most of my time and money on the arbitrage effort. The nice thing about arbitrage is that it works as the markets go up, and it works as the markets go down. When markets are too volatile, however, arbitrage can get very messy and dangerous, with each trade generating a loss instead of a profit, so I am working right now to tune the algorithms to take into account rate-of-change and add in some circuit breaker triggers. Once this is done I will expand those operations.
I am getting much more serious about systems security.
I have a Nano Ledger and recommend that anyone with >$1000 of crypto have one. The Trezor is also supposed to be good, but I haven’t used it.
I will set up a dedicated *nix notebook that is used for nothing except my crypto work. All it takes is one keylogger to get on your PC/Mac and your crypto is gone. What is on your Nano Ledger will be OK, but they will sweep out your exchange account or Coinbase account faster than you can type. A standard Linux installation with Chrome and nothing else is as about as secure as you can get in the civilian world.
If you don’t use LastPass or a similar password manager yet, you need to do that. Your password to LastPass should be at least 16 characters long and should not have a recognizable English word in it. If you think that “Iluvu4evah” is a secure password, you’re wrong.
Hackers know that “4”=”for” and “u”=”you”. Writing a script to substitute those in is trivial if they want to write the script, but it’s much easier for them to download one of the many, many programs out there that already do this.
If your password contains any string of numbers from anything that can be associated with you at any time in your life, it is insecure. Take those numbers out of the character count because they are an insignificant barrier to cracking your account.
The good news is that you probably won’t be targeted, but if you ever mention online that you are doing anything significant in crypto, that chance increased enormously.
*Never* talk with *anyone* about how much you have in crypto. You’ll notice that I haven’t here. There is no reason to tell even a family member how much you have unless you are sharing a tax form. Sure, you may trust them, but all it takes if for someone to overhead someone else mention at a party that a relative got into crypto a long time ago and made a bunch of money. That person can also then be subjected to the $10 hack and force you to send all your crypto to them.
Your password to LastPass (Or equivalent.) should look something like this -> 6k0jQMoziX&D#4W8
Yes, it’s a headache. Imagine your headache, though, were you to open your account one day and find all of your money gone.
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way. ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto. iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve. iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments. Happy 2018.
Trump Didn’t Kill the Global Trade System. He Split It in Two.
This article is taken from the Wall Street Journal written about nine months ago and sits behind a a paywall, so I decided to copy and paste it here. This article explains Trump's policies toward global trade and what has actually happened so far. I think the article does a decent job of explaining the Trade War. While alot has happenedsince the article was written, I still think its relevant. However, what is lacking in the article, like many articles on the trade war, is it doesn't really explain the history of US trade policy, the laws that the US administration is using to place tariffs on China and the official justification for the US President in enacting tariffs against China. In my analysis I will cover those points.
When Trump entered the White House people feared he would dismantle the global system the US and its allies had built over the last 75 years, but he hasn't. He has realign into two systems. One between the US and its allies which looks similar to the one built since the 1980s with a few of quota and tariffs. As the article points out
Today, Korus and Nafta have been replaced by updated agreements(one not yet ratified) that look much like the originals. South Korea accepted quotas on steel. Mexico and Canada agreed to higher wages, North American content requirements and quotas for autos. Furthermore, the article points out Douglas Irwin, an economist and trade historian at Dartmouth College, calls these results the “status quo with Trumpian tweaks: a little more managed trade sprinkled about for favored industries. It’s not good, but it’s not the destruction of the system.” Mr. Trump’s actions so far affect only 12% of U.S. imports, according to Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. In 1984, 21% of imports were covered by similar restraints, many imposed by Mr. Reagan, such as on cars, steel, motorcycles and clothing. Protectionist instincts go so far in the US, there are strong lobby groups for both protectionist and freetrade in the US.
The second reflects a emerging rivalry between the US and China. Undo some of the integration that followed China accession to the WTO. Two questions 1) How far is the US willing to decouple with China 2) Can it persuade allies to join.
The second is going to be difficult because China's economic ties are greater than they were between the Soviets, and China isn't waging an ideological struggle. Trump lacks Reagan commitment to alliance and free trade. The status quo with China is crumbling Dan Sullivan, a Republican senator from Alaska, personifies these broader forces reshaping the U.S. approach to the world. When Mr. Xi visited the U.S. in 2015, Mr. Sullivan urged his colleagues to pay more attention to China’s rise. On the Senate floor, he quoted the political scientist Graham Allison: “War between the U.S. and China is more likely than recognized at the moment.” Last spring, Mr. Sullivan went to China and met officials including Vice President Wang Qishan. They seemed to think tensions with the U.S. will fade after Mr. Trump leaves the scene, Mr. Sullivan recalled. “I just said, ‘You are completely misreading this.’” The mistrust, he told them, is bipartisan, and will outlast Mr. Trump. both Bush II and Obama tried to change dialogue and engagement, but by the end of his term, Obama was questioning the approach. Trump has declared engagement. “We don’t like it when our allies steal our ideas either, but it’s a much less dangerous situation,” said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute whose views align with the administration’s more hawkish officials. “We’re not worried about the war-fighting capability of Japan and Korea because they’re our friends.”
The article also points out unlike George Kennan in 1946 who made a case for containing the Soviet Union, the US hasn't explicitly made a case for containing the Soviets, Trump's administration hasn't, because as the the article explains its divided Michael Pillsbury a Hudson Institute scholar close to the Trump team, see 3 scenarios
New Cold War with drastically reduced economic ties
China resolve their tensions, integrate and run the world together
Transactional US-China relationship of the sort during the 1980s
Pillsbury thinks the third is most likely to happen, even though the administration hasn't said that it has adopted that policy. The US is stepping efforts to draw in other trading partners. The US, EU and Japan have launched a WTO effort to crack down on domestic subsidies and technology transfers requirement. US and Domestic concerns with prompted some countries to restrict Huawei. The US is also seeking to walloff China from other trade deals. However, there are risk with this strategy
Other countries like Japan and South Korea to dependent on China. Too integrated.
Raise objections to Belt and Road. But no alternative
My main criticism of this article is it tries like the vast majority of articles to fit US trade actions in the larger context of US geopolitical strategy. Even the author isn't certain "The first goes to the heart of Mr. Trump’s goal. If his aim is to hold back China’s advance, economists predict he will fail.". If you try to treat the trade "war" and US geopolitical strategy toward China as one, you will find yourself quickly frustrated and confused. If you treat them separately with their different set of stakeholders and histories, were they intersect with regards to China, but diverge. During the Cold War, trade policy toward the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc was subordinated to geopolitical concerns. For Trump, the trade issues are more important than geopolitical strategy. His protectionist trade rhetoric has been fairly consistent since 1980s. In his administration, the top cabinet members holding economic portfolios, those of Commerce, Treasury and US Trade Representative are the same people he picked when he first took office. The Director of the Economic Council has changed hands once, its role isn't as important as the National Security Advisor. While State, Defense, CIA, Homeland Security, UN Ambassador, National Security Advisor have changed hands at least once. Only the Director of National Intelligence hasn't changed. International Trade makes up 1/4 of the US economy, and like national security its primarily the responsibility of the Federal government. States in the US don't implement their own tariffs. If you add the impact of Treasury policy and how it relates to capital flows in and out of the US, the amounts easily exceed the size of the US economy. Furthermore, because of US Dollar role as the reserve currency and US control of over global system the impact of Treasury are global. Trade policy and investment flows runs through two federal departments Commerce and Treasury and for trade also USTR. Defense spending makes up 3.3% of GDP, and if you add in related homeland security its at most 4%. Why would anyone assume that these two realms be integrated let alone trade policy subordinate to whims of a national security bureaucracy in most instances? With North Korea or Iran, trade and investment subordinate themselves to national security, because to Treasury and Commerce bureaucrats and their affiliated interest groups, Iran and the DPRK are well, economic midgets, but China is a different matter. The analysis will be divided into four sections. The first will be to provide a brief overview of US trade policy since 1914. The second section will discuss why the US is going after China on trade issues, and why the US has resorted using a bilateral approach as opposed to going through the WTO. The third section we will talk about how relations with China is hashed out in the US. The reason why I submitted this article, because there aren't many post trying to explain US-China Trade War from a trade perspective. Here is a post titled "What is the Reasons for America's Trade War with China, and not one person mentioned Article 301 or China's WTO Commitments. You get numerous post saying that Huawei is at heart of the trade war. Its fine, but if you don't know what was inside the USTR Investigative report that lead to the tariffs. its like skipping dinner and only having dessert When the US President, Donald J Trump, says he wants to negotiate a better trade deal with other countries, and has been going on about for the last 35 years, longer than many of you have been alive, why do people think that the key issues with China aren't primarily about trade at the moment.
OVERVIEW OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE ORIENTATION
Before 1940s, the US could be categorized as a free market protectionist economy. For many this may seem like oxymoron, how can an economy be free market and protectionist? In 1913, government spending made up about 7.5% of US GDP, in the UK it was 13%, and for Germany 18% (Public Spending in the 20th Century A Global Perspective: Ludger Schuknecht and Vito Tanzi - 2000). UK had virtual zero tariffs, while for manufactured goods in France it was 20%, 13% Germany, 9% Belgium and 4% Netherlands. For raw materials and agricultural products, it was almost zero. In contrast, for the likes of United States, Russia and Japan it was 44%, 84% and 30% respectively. Even though in 1900 United States was an economic powerhouse along with Germany, manufactured exports only made up 30% of exports, and the US government saw tariffs as exclusively a domestic policy matter and didn't see tariffs as something to be negotiated with other nations. The US didn't have the large constituency to push the government for lower tariffs abroad for their exports like in Britain in the 1830-40s (Reluctant Partners: A History of Multilateral Trade Cooperation, 1850-2000). The Underwood Tariffs Act of 1913 which legislated the income tax, dropped the tariffs to 1850 levels levels.Until 16th amendment was ratified in 1913 making income tax legal, all US federal revenue came from excise and tariffs. In contrast before 1914, about 50% of UK revenue came from income taxes. The reason for US reluctance to introduced income tax was ideological and the United State's relative weak government compared to those in Europe. After the First World War, the US introduced the Emergency Tariff Act of 1921, than the Fordney–McCumber Tariff of 1922 followed by a Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930. Contrary to popular opinion, the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 had a small negative impact on the economy, since imports and exports played a small part of the US economy, and the tariffs were lower than the average that existed from 1850-1914. Immediately after the Second World War, when the US economy was the only industrialized economy left standing, the economic focus was on rehabilitation and monetary stability. There was no grandiose and ideological design. Bretton Woods system linked the US dollar to gold to create monetary stability, and to avoid competitive devaluation and tariffs that plagued the world economy after Britain took itself off the gold in 1931. The US$ was the natural choice, because in 1944 2/3 of the world's gold was in the US. One reason why the Marshall Plan was created was to alleviate the chronic deficits Europeans countries had with the US between 1945-50. It was to rebuild their economies so they could start exports good to the US. Even before it was full implemented in 1959, it was already facing problems, the trade surpluses that the US was running in the 1940s, turned to deficits as European and Japanese economies recovered. By 1959, Federal Reserves foreign liabilities had already exceeded its gold reserves. There were fears of a run on the US gold supply and arbitrage. A secondary policy of the Bretton woods system was curbs on capital outflows to reduce speculation on currency pegs, and this had a negative impact on foreign investment until it was abandoned in 1971. It wasn't until the 1980s, where foreign investment recovered to levels prior to 1914. Factoring out the big spike in global oil prices as a result of the OPEC cartel, it most likely wasn't until the mid-1990s that exports as a % of GDP had reached 1914 levels. Until the 1980s, the US record regarding free trade and markets was mediocre. The impetus to remove trade barriers in Europe after the Second World War was driven by the Europeans themselves. The EEC already had a custom union in 1968, Canada and the US have yet to even discuss implementing one. Even with Canada it took the US over 50 years to get a Free Trade Agreement. NAFTA was inspired by the success of the EEC. NAFTA was very much an elite driven project. If the Americans put the NAFTA to a referendum like the British did with the EEC in the seventies, it most likely wouldn't pass. People often look at segregation in the US South as a political issue, but it was economic issue as well. How could the US preach free trade, when it didn't have free trade in its own country. Segregation was a internal non-tariff barrier. In the first election after the end of the Cold War in 1992, Ross Perot' based most of independent run for the Presidency on opposition to NAFTA. He won 19% of the vote. Like Ross Perot before him, Donald Trump is not the exception in how America has handled tariffs since the founding of the Republic, but more the norm. The embrace of free trade by the business and political elite can be attributed to two events. After the end of Bretton Woods in 1971, a strong vested interest in the US in the form of multinationals and Wall Street emerged advocating for removal of tariffs and more importantly the removal of restrictions on free flow of capital, whether direct foreign investment in portfolio investment. However, the political class embrace of free trade and capital only really took off after the collapse of the Soviet Union propelled by Cold War triumphalism. As mentioned by the article, the US is reverting back to a pre-WTO relations with China. As Robert Lighthizer said in speech in 2000
I guess my prescription, really, is to move back to more of a negotiating kind of a settlement. Return to WTO and what it really was meant to be. Something where you have somebody make a decision but have it not be binding.
The US is using financial and legal instruments developed during the Cold War like its extradition treaties (with Canada and Europe), and Section 301. Here is a very good recent article about enforcement commitment that China will make.‘Painful’ enforcement ahead for China if trade war deal is reached with US insisting on unilateral terms NOTE: It is very difficult to talk about US-China trade war without a basic knowledge of global economic history since 1914. What a lot of people do is politicize or subordinate the economic history to the political. Some commentators think US power was just handed to them after the Second World War, when the US was the only industrialized economy left standing. The dominant position of the US was temporary and in reality its like having 10 tonnes of Gold sitting in your house, it doesn't automatically translate to influence. The US from 1945-1989 was slowly and gradually build her influence in the non-Communist world. For example, US influence in Canada in the 1960s wasn't as strong as it is now. Only 50% of Canadian exports went to the US in 1960s vs 80% at the present moment.
BASIS OF THE US TRADE DISCUSSION WITH CHINA
According to preliminary agreement between China and the US based on unnamed sources in the Wall Street Journal article US, China close in on Trade Deal. In this article it divides the deal in two sections. The first aspects have largely to do with deficits and is political.
As part of a deal, China is pledging to help level the playing field, including speeding up the timetable for removing foreign-ownership limitations on car ventures and reducing tariffs on imported vehicles to below the current auto tariff of 15%. Beijing would also step up purchases of U.S. goods—a tactic designed to appeal to President Trump, who campaigned on closing the bilateral trade deficit with China. One of the sweeteners would be an $18 billion natural-gas purchase from Cheniere Energy Inc., people familiar with the transaction said.
The second part will involve the following.
Commitment Regarding Industrial Policy
Provisions to protect IP
Mechanism which complaints by US companies can be addressed
Bilateral meetings adjudicate disputes. If talks don't produce agreement than US can raise tariffs unilaterally
China uses joint venture requirements, foreign investment restrictions, and administrative review and licensing processes to require or pressure technology transfer from U.S. companies.
China deprives U.S. companies of the ability to set market-based terms in licensing and other technology-related negotiations.
China directs and unfairly facilitates the systematic investment in, and acquisition of, U.S. companies and assets to generate large-scale technology transfer.
China conducts and supports cyber intrusions into U.S. commercial computer networks to gain unauthorized access to commercially valuable business information.
In the bigger context of trade relations between US and China, China is not honoring its WTO commitments, and the USTR issued its yearly report to Congress in early February about the status of China compliance with its WTO commitments. The points that served as a basis for applying Section 301, also deviate from her commitments as Clinton's Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky paving the way for a trade war. Barshefsky argues that China's back sliding was happening as early as 2006-07, and believes the trade war could have been avoided has those commitments been enforced by previous administrations. I will provide a brief overview of WTO membership and China's process of getting into the WTO. WTO members can be divided into two groups, first are countries that joined in 1995-97, and were members of GATT, than there are the second group that joined after 1997. China joined in 2001. There is an argument that when China joined in 2001, she faced more stringent conditions than other developing countries that joined before, because the vast majority of developing countries were members of GATT, and were admitted to the WTO based on that previous membership in GATT. Here is Brookings Institute article published in 2001 titled "Issues in China’s WTO Accession"
This question is all the more puzzling because the scope and depth of demands placed on entrants into the formal international trading system have increased substantially since the formal conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations in 1994, which expanded the agenda considerably by covering many services, agriculture, intellectual property, and certain aspects of foreign direct investment. Since 1994, the international community has added agreements covering information technology, basic telecommunications services, and financial services. WTO membership now entails liberalization of a much broader range of domestic economic activity, including areas that traditionally have been regarded by most countries as among the most sensitive, than was required of countries entering the WTO’s predecessor organization the GATT. The terms of China’s protocol of accession to the World Trade Organization reflect the developments just described and more. China’s market access commitments are much more far-reaching than those that governed the accession of countries only a decade ago. And, as a condition for membership, China was required to make protocol commitments that substantially exceed those made by any other member of the World Trade Organization, including those that have joined since 1995. The broader and deeper commitments China has made inevitably will entail substantial short-term economic costs.
What are the WTO commitments Barshefsky goes on about? When countries join the WTO, particularly those countries that weren't members of GATT and joined after 1997, they have to work toward fulfilling certain commitments. There are 4 key documents when countries make an accession to WTO membership, the working party report, the accession protocol paper, the goods schedule and service schedule. In the working party report as part of the conclusion which specifies the commitment of each member country what they will do in areas that aren't compliant with WTO regulations on the date they joined. The problem there is no good enforcement mechanism for other members to force China to comply with these commitments. And WTO punishments are weak. Here is the commitment paragraph for China "The Working Party took note of the explanations and statements of China concerning its foreign trade regime, as reflected in this Report. The Working Party took note of the commitments given by China in relation to certain specific matters which are reproduced in paragraphs 18-19, 22-23, 35-36, 40, 42, 46-47, 49, 60, 62, 64, 68, 70, 73, 75, 78-79, 83-84, 86, 91-93, 96, 100-103, 107, 111, 115-117, 119-120, 122-123, 126-132, 136, 138, 140, 143, 145, 146, 148, 152, 154, 157, 162, 165, 167-168, 170-174, 177-178, 180, 182, 184-185, 187, 190-197, 199-200, 203-207, 210, 212-213, 215, 217, 222-223, 225, 227-228, 231-235, 238, 240-242, 252, 256, 259, 263, 265, 270, 275, 284, 286, 288, 291, 292, 296, 299, 302, 304-305, 307-310, 312-318, 320, 322, 331-334, 336, 339 and 341 of this Report and noted that these commitments are incorporated in paragraph 1.2 of the Draft Protocol. " This is a tool by the WTO that list all the WTO commitment of each country in the working paper. In the goods and service schedule they have commitments for particular sectors. Here is the a press release by the WTO in September 2001, after successfully concluding talks for accession, and brief summary of key areas in which China hasn't fulfilled her commitments. Most of the commitments made by China were made to address its legacy as a non-market economy and involvement of state owned enterprises. In my opinion, I think the US government and investors grew increasingly frustrated with China, after 2007 not just because of China's back sliding, but relative to other countries who joined after 1997 like Vietnam, another non-market Leninist dictatorship. When comparing China's commitments to the WTO its best to compare her progress with those that joined after 1997, which were mostly ex-Soviet Republics. NOTE: The Chinese media have for two decades compared any time the US has talked about China's currency manipulation or any other issue as a pretext for imposing tariffs on China to the Plaza Accords. I am very sure people will raise it here. My criticism of this view is fourfold. First, the US targeted not just Japan, but France, Britain and the UK as well. Secondly, the causes of the Japan lost decade were due largely to internal factors. Thirdly, Japan, UK, Britain and France in the 1980s, the Yuan isn't undervalued today. Lastly, in the USTR investigation, its China's practices that are the concern, not so much the trade deficit.
REASONS FOR TRUMPS UNILATERAL APPROACH
I feel that people shouldn't dismiss Trump's unilateral approach toward China for several reasons.
The multilateral approach won't work in many issues such as the trade deficit, commercial espionage and intellectual property, because US and her allies have different interest with regard to these issues. Germany and Japan and trade surpluses with China, while the US runs a deficit. In order to reach a consensus means the West has to compromise among themselves, and the end result if the type of toothless resolutions you commonly find in ASEAN regarding the SCS. Does America want to "compromise" its interest to appease a politician like Justin Trudeau? Not to mention opposition from domestic interest. TPP was opposed by both Clinton and Trump during the election.
You can't launch a geopolitical front against China using a newly formed trade block like the TPP. Some of the existing TPP members are in economic groups with China, like Malaysia and Australia.
China has joined a multitude of international bodies, and at least in trade, these bodies haven't changed its behavior.
Trump was elected to deal with China which he and his supporters believe was responsible for the loss of millions manufacturing jobs when China joined the WTO in 2001. It is estimate the US lost 6 Million jobs, about 1/4 of US manufacturing Jobs. This has been subsequently advanced by some economists. The ball got rolling when Bill Clinton decided to grant China Most Favored Nation status in 1999, just a decade after Tiananmen.
China hasn't dealt with issues like IP protection, market access, subsidies to state own companies and state funded industrial spying.
According to the survey, 39 percent of the country views China’s growing power as a “critical threat” to Americans. That ranked it only eighth among 12 potential threats listed and placed China well behind the perceived threats from international terrorism (66 percent), North Korea’s nuclear program (59 percent) and Iran’s nuclear program (52 percent). It’s also considerably lower than when the same question was asked during the 1990s, when more than half of those polled listed China as a critical threat. That broadly tracks with a recent poll from the Pew Research Center that found concern about U.S.-China economic issues had decreased since 2012.
In looking at how US conducts relations foreign policy with China, we should look at it from the three areas of most concern - economic, national security and ideology. Each sphere has their interest groups, and sometimes groups can occupy two spheres at once. Security experts are concerned with some aspects of China's economic actions like IP theft and industrial policy (China 2025), because they are related to security. In these sphere there are your hawks and dove. And each sphere is dominated by certain interest groups. That is why US policy toward China can often appear contradictory. You have Trump want to reduce the trade deficit, but security experts advocating for restrictions on dual use technology who are buttressed by people who want export restrictions on China, as a way of getting market access. Right now the economic concerns are most dominant, and the hawks seem to dominate. The economic hawks traditionally have been domestic manufacturing companies and economic nationalist. In reality the hawks aren't dominant, but the groups like US Companies with large investment in China and Wall Street are no longer defending China, and some have turned hawkish against China. These US companies are the main conduit in which China's lobby Congress, since China only spends 50% of what Taiwan spends lobbying Congress. THE ANGLO SAXON WORLD AND CHINA I don't think many Chinese even those that speak English, have a good understanding Anglo-Saxon society mindset. Anglo Saxons countries, whether US, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Ireland are commerce driven society governed by sanctity of contracts. The English great philosophical contributions to Western philosophy have primarily to do with economics and politics like Adam Smith, John Locke, David Hume and Thomas Hobbes. This contrast with the French and Germans. Politics in the UK and to a lesser extent the US, is centered around economics, while in Mainland Europe its religion. When the Americans revolted against the British Empire in 1776, the initial source of the grievances were taxes. Outside of East Asia, the rest of the World's relationship with China was largely commercial, and for United States, being an Anglosaxon country, even more so. In Southeast Asia, Chinese aren't known for high culture, but for trade and commerce. Outside Vietnam, most of Chinese loans words in Southeast Asian languages involve either food or money. The influence is akin to Yiddish in English. Some people point to the Mao and Nixon meeting as great strategic breakthrough and symbol of what great power politics should look like. The reality is that the Mao-Nixon meeting was an anomaly in the long history of relations with China and the West. Much of China-Western relations over the last 500 years was conducted by multitudes of nameless Chinese and Western traders. The period from 1949-1979 was the only period were strategic concerns triumphed trade, because China had little to offer except instability and revolution. Even in this period, China's attempt to spread revolution in Southeast Asia was a threat to Western investments and corporate interest in the region. During the nadir of both the Qing Dynasty and Republican period, China was still engaged in its traditional commercial role. Throughout much of history of their relations with China, the goals of Britain and the United States were primarily economic, IMAGINE JUST 10% OF CHINA BOUGHT MY PRODUCT From the beginning, the allure of China to Western businesses and traders has been its sheer size I. One of the points that the USTR mentions is lack of market access for US companies operating in China, while Chinese companies face much less restrictions operating in the US.
China uses joint venture requirements, foreign investment restrictions, and administrative review and licensing processes to require or pressure technology transfer from U.S. companies.
China deprives U.S. companies of the ability to set market-based terms in licensing and other technology-related negotiations.
Trade with China has hurt some American workers. And they have expressed their grievances at the ballot box. So while many attribute this shift to the Trump Administration, I do not. What we are now seeing will likely endure for some time within the American policy establishment. China is viewed—by a growing consensus—not just as a strategic challenge to the United States but as a country whose rise has come at America’s expense. In this environment, it would be helpful if the US-China relationship had more advocates. That it does not reflects another failure: In large part because China has been slow to open its economy since it joined the WTO, the American business community has turned from advocate to skeptic and even opponent of past US policies toward China. American business doesn’t want a tariff war but it does want a more aggressive approach from our government. How can it be that those who know China best, work there, do business there, make money there, and have advocated for productive relations in the past, are among those now arguing for more confrontation? The answer lies in the story of stalled competition policy, and the slow pace of opening, over nearly two decades. This has discouraged and fragmented the American business community. And it has reinforced the negative attitudinal shift among our political and expert classes. In short, even though many American businesses continue to prosper in China, a growing number of firms have given up hope that the playing field will ever be level. Some have accepted the Faustian bargain of maximizing today’s earnings per share while operating under restrictions that jeopardize their future competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean they’re happy about it. Nor does it mean they aren’t acutely aware of the risks — or thinking harder than ever before about how to diversify their risks away from, and beyond, China.
What is interesting about Paulson's speech is he spend only one sentence about displaced US workers, and a whole paragraph about US business operating in China. While Kissinger writes books about China, how much does he contribute to both Democrats and the Republicans during the election cycle? China is increasingly makING it more difficult for US companies operating and those exporting products to China.
I’ll level with you. Up until about 3 or 4 years ago, I had never even heard the word arbitrage… And I’d been a financial advisor for like 5 years already! So it doesn’t shock me if some of you reading this have no idea what it means either. And because of that, I want to define it to you. Arbitrage in the dictionary means “the simultaneous purchase and sale of the asset in different markets to profit from unequal prices.” In English, that means you buy a thing at one price and sell it as the same time for another price that is higher in a different market and you do it at the same time in order to make a profit on the difference between what you paid and what you sold it for. For example, I buy a vehicle in Alabama at a low price and sell the same vehicle at the same time in Alaska at a higher price. And I make an instant profit. You may ask, how is arbitrage different than just buying and selling things at a profit? Here is the key difference: with arbitrage, I am buying and selling at the same time. This means my profit is instant because it exists as a byproduct of my transaction. With most buying and selling, the sale is not instant. This means I could be out some time and/or some money while I find someone to sell it to before I can make my profit. Okay, so now that we now what arbitrage means, why is it important? Well, it is a powerful way to invest. Arbitrage goes back for a long time! Banks, corporations, and Wall Street firms do it more than you could ever imagine. It is so powerful that they don’t really do any other type of investing. How would you like to know exactly how to do this for yourself so that you can invest the way banks and the Top 1% do? Great! That is exactly what I’m going to show you here! First, I want to establish that there are two main ways of arbitrage investing. The first one we discussed already, which is buying and selling. An easy example of this could be with Forex markets. If I am trading in US Dollars and another currency is trading at a lower rate than normal and I knew it would be coming back up soon, I could buy a bunch of that currency with my USD in order to make an instant profit when it bounces back. This is done fairly regularly. The other type of arbitrage investing is actually with debt. For this to work, you need to be pretty emotionally flat about debt. Otherwise, you are probably going to have some issues. I could borrow money at 5%, knowing that I am going to make at least 6%. And I keep the difference in the middle. That’s a simple way of doing it. Banks do this with your money. The interest they pay you on your account is actually a loan. You loaned them your money and that is why you’re getting interest. They are then investing your money to make more than what they have to pay you. I legitimately didn’t know this for most of my life. But it is true and it is extremely lucrative. The key is, you need to be able to borrow money at a lower rate than what you’d make on it. The third way you can do this is called double arbitrage. Let’s say that you had an asset that was already earning 6%. You then borrow it at 5%. You are making a 1% arbitrage on that money. But then the money you borrowed at 5% you will now loan to someone else at 8%. You’re making another 8% arbitrage spready because the 5% you’re paying is being covered by the 6% you are going to earn in the first place. So your total profit is 8% plus the other positive 1%. You are making 9% in arbitrage. We do this with a tool called the Sacred Account. It is a whole life insurance policy that pays about a 6% dividend. You borrow at 5% and you loan it out on real estate deals that pay you 8-12%. Only ours is even more powerful. You’re going to write the 5% you’re paying interest off on your taxes. You’re also going to use the 8-12% you’re making to pay your loan off early. This means you’re making a 6% dividend. After tax deductions and early loan repayment you are probably paying closer to 3-4%. And you’re out there earning the 8-12% This means you are making 2-3% in arbitrage, plus another 8-12% on top of that. Incredible right? And the best thing about it is that this has nothing to do with the stock market. It has nothing to do with trading foreign currencies. It is secured by real assets and you know what you’re going to get. This is the reason why the Sacred Account has been around for over 150 years and the concept of arbitrage investing has been around for thousands of years. It isn’t complicated, you have full control over the entire thing, and it costs you almost nothing to do. If you’re reading this and you would like to learn how to get involved in this style of investing, then I want you to reach out to me. My team and I help do this with literally millions of dollars every single month for our clients and we would be happy to show you how. Click here to learn more! Own Your Potential, Jerry Fetta CEO & Founder of Wealth DynamX Jerry Fetta helps his clients gain more financial knowledge, make more money, keep more of it, and multiply what they keep. If you feel like one or more of these areas is costing you money and opportunity right now, then get more information about Jerry Fetta and Wealth DynamX by going to www.WealthDynamX.com/contact Wealth DynamX Home https://www.facebook.com/WealthDynamX https://www.linkedin.com/in/jerry-fetta-601b00a0/https://www.linkedin.com/in/jerry-fetta-601b00a0/ https://www.instagram.com/jerryfetta https://medium.com/@jerryfetta https://steemit.com/@jerryfetta https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCsGCnD2cXDbNj53GH4y50zg?view_as=subscriber
Mainfinex MAINFINEX offers a trusted exchange that crypto traders can use to make informed trades and participate in the cryptocurrency market. At the time of launch, MAINFINEX offers 15 different cryptocurrency pairs, all of which include USDT. The MAINFINEX cryptocurrency exchange offers something for every type of trader, regardless of experience level. Beginners will appreciate the intuitive interface and the fact that MAINFINEX uses Tradingview charts, which have numerous online tutorials for guidance. Advanced traders will appreciate the hundreds of drawing tools, the vast quantity of indicators, and high level of customization for charts. Challenges faced by cryptocurrency exchanges today: ● Failure to apply global financial practices, and poor interface ● Large number of exchanges with little differentiation which complicates the choice of platform for operations ● Large number of unsuccessful traders losing money ● Pain points that are still there. Exchange Our understanding of the needs of the key trading parties in digital exchanges comes down to the concept “Traders seek liquidity and investors need profitability.”
Liquidity and profitability
A mechanism we could build in to solve the problems of traders and long-term investors based on the exchange policy related to trading fees:
Flexible interest rate depending on the volume, thus reducing the trading fee. The more activity in a trading section, the cheaper it is for that section
Fees reduced in case of severe price deviation. To reduce volatility and slippage and thus increase liquidity, market-making traders creating liquidity will be charged at a lower rate. The increase in volumes triggered by the reduced fee in case of price deviation will help smoothen out volatility.
Traders bearing losses have a regressive fee scale depending on the volume of the loss. This mechanism serves to mitigate the consequences of unfavorable deals for a trader.
Sustainability “Back to the battle” Traders who have lost money but made it to the daily TOP 100 based on the volume will receive tokens compensating all the fees they paid or part of the losses. This will help stimulate liquidity in the exchange and create best cryptocurrency market conditions for arbitrage funds. Such funds account for up 80% of transaction in fiat exchanges.
Concept: gaming elements of the exchange, buttons, etc. “Titles and statuses” With the emergence of cryptocurrencies, the world of finance has been transformed. It has to be clear and relevant for our users since the key audience of the exchange is 25-38 years old. Which means they played DOOM 2 when they were school students (in 1994). Why can’t we give simple names to complex financial instruments? It was the stunts and dirty tricks that guys in suits from investment banks played that eventually caused the mortgage crisis. We have selected the most popular financial instruments that we can provide. They can be understood and activated in one click. We have chosen simple names for them:
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To benefit from certain options like the trading robot or funds management, users will be required to perform specific actions, e.g.: Purchasing exchange tokens. Equivalent free options: e.g., reposting our news daily throughout a month, which will also help expand the user’s subscriber base.
Purchasing liquidity from “mini exchanges”
A partner exchange that will provide liquidity for trading in our exchange or display our depth of market diagram on its website will receive all the relevant fees collected in our tokens. This is how this mechanism works. Mini exchanges have a permanent audience of traders creating liquidity but due to the small volumes, the mutual liquidity among the participants is low and transactions are infrequent. This is a case of “the chicken or the egg” problem. The more users there are, the more frequently the transactions occur between the same users. Accordingly, a mini exchange will be able to increase the volume of fees collected by 3-4 times by using this opportunity.
A shopping cart with all kinds of tokens. Includes both potentially successful and unsuccessful coins that cannot afford to pay the listing fee on their own. We collect the entire pool in a cart and sell it as one portfolio at a greatly reduced price. This gives unsuccessful ICO projects an opportunity to return part of the invested funds. And the users buying such assets at a rate below the cost level have more chances of profiting from price growth. The higher risk of unsuccessful projects in the portfolio compensated by the low price and the potentially high profitability is the key incentive.
Just like in complex computer games such as urban construction simulators or turn-based strategies, at the first stage the player is taught how to use the game’s functionalities before he starts playing it in the full mode. Finance and cryptocurrencies have never been simple. Every individual financial instrument is based on a complex concept. The simplicity of starting to trade cryptocurrencies and the lack of regulation in the market result in a situation when most traders lose their money and investments. The tutorial works the same simple way, providing prompts on the sequence of the steps in the exchange. We will cooperate with several financial regulators to improve this instrument in order to develop new instruments that will help mitigate the risk of losses for each individual trader. At the end, many of the regulators’ tasks come down to managing the consequences of the great financial gap between trading parties. Information correct at time of going to type. For updated information, go to Mainfinex Exchange web platform (Mainfinex Exchange website). Note: In the event of conflict between this information and the information on the Mainfinex Exchange Website, the information on the Mainfinex Exchange Website will prevail. Here, I present to you Mainfinex- The Future of Cryptocurrency Exchange, Mainfinex!!! Mainfinex Exchange website Mainfinex Exchange WhitePaper ETH Address: 0x49d576e54C78e17E4451E7eF9f1d9C8e55360661 Email Address: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Strategies And Secrets Of High Frequency Trading (HFT) Firms Secrecy, Strategy and Speed are the terms that best define high frequency trading (HFT) firms and indeed, the financial industry at large as it exists today. HFT firms are secretive about their ways of operating and keys to success. The important people associated with HFT have shunned limelight and preferred to be lesser known, though that's changing now. The firms in the HFT business operate through multiple strategies to trade and make money. The strategies include different forms of arbitrage – index arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, statistical arbitrage and merger arbitrage along with global macro, long/short equity, passive market making, and so on. HFT rely on the ultra fast speed of computer software, data access (NASDAQ TotalView-ITCH, NYSE OpenBook, etc) to important resources and connectivity with minimal latency (delay). Let’s explore some more about the types of HFT firms, their strategies to make m..... Continue reading at: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/092114/strategies-and-secrets-high-frequency-trading-hft-firms.asp
Although there forex arbitrage is a more complex Forex Millennium Review approach other that the other strategies and techniques, still it is one way of ensuring that this can become a possibility for you to indulge and make sure that you have the necessary skills in order to be able to accommodate this kind of approach to some people. In this way also it's making it the best option for traders to go ahead and making use of this as a part of your strategy in trading will in the end lead you to some favorable results. This also would require and make way for you to be able to develop a good thing in making sure that what you have is the most appropriate approach to use in the forex market. With a lot of strategies that will be used in profiting from the forex market on e thing you need to know and take into consideration is on how this is going to be able to provide you with the things that you need to make sure that you can earn profits from this type of approach. It's no doubt that with a lot of strategies and ways on how to be able to learn from forex arbitrage, it can allow one of us to explore some other options and arrive at a certain conclusion that with these different ways we can have the most important ways in developing a profitable strategy known as forex arbitrage.The Forex Market involves a trading system that involves all the currencies around the world. There is constant buying and selling of the currencies which will also depend on situations that are happening right in that very country as well. With the Forex market there is a constant change in the development and improvement of the currency being traded depending on real time events. This is a market which accommodates billions and even trillions of dollars each day making this one the largest financial market around the globe. Dealing with currencies in trading market also requires you to have a currency trading course to provide you with a clear description of the market that you are trading in. Traders usually are just waiting for the values of the currencies to go along and in favor to them. This can also become profitable in the traders part as there are a lot of things that would need to become quite comfortable with trading with the currencies of the different countries around the world. One has to ensure that before venturing into the currency trading business. You would need to be familiar and would need also to have the knowledge on how the currencies world and what are the different techniques that you can use in order to be able to get knowledge through the currency trading course.The currency trading course has a good way in determining which would have a better way in checking on the different signals also that would be used in order for you to avoid the common mistakes in trading that would cost you much because of the lack of knowledge on this things. It is but important to see to it that there are different strategies that would need to be implemented in any way that it would be able to provide a good understanding on the currency trading course and how it will be able to affect your career in the currency trading. Some would find it as a risky business to venture on but careful looking into the details, all you need to do us to have the knowledge and the strategies to be able to know what are the different things needed for this type of business. If you have already taken the currency trading course you will be able to know then how important it is to have this as a guide in making sure that you will be able to get by with the different risks and most of all to ensure the profitability that you have for this particular business. Making sure that this happens is a good way in arriving at a certain point where you can earn profits from this.Forex signal software enables every trader to have a simple access to current events and situations of forex trade in the market. It updates them whether it is the right time for them to place a trade or if it is not. It also gives them information with a real time data whenever and wherever they are on the world. It gives an easy right of entry to the latest forex market world. https://asrightasrain.co/forex-millennium-review/
https://preview.redd.it/p9ga08w641121.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2e6efec7a84f437fab19c8d2e65a737bfbc3d38f What Is an Algorithm or Forex Robot? In its simplest form, an algorithm is a list of steps needed to solve a problem. When referring to algorithmic trading, we refer to steps written in machine language so that a computer can understand what you want and execute trades on behalf of you and your goals. An algorithm spans multiple functions outside of trading but either way the algorithmis used; it has a clear purpose to help compute large datasets in an efficient manner while abiding by key rules to help ensure the desired outcome. Algorithms accomplish this feat without having to worry about human biases or mental fatigue and high-level and high-frequency decision-making. -Algorithm Trading Styles The following list is not inclusive but does cover many commonly used strategies and styles in algorithmic trading: Mean Reversion: Reverting to the mean takes the idea that an extended move away from a long-term average is likely short-term and due for a reversion or retracement. Algorithms that quantify extended moves based on an oscillator will utilize the average price over a set time and use that level as a target. There many popular tools and calculations for quantifying an extension that is due to revert but risk management must also be included in the algorithm encasing new trend is developing. Trend following: Trend following is the first, and still very popular technique of algorithmic-based momentum investing. Trends are easy to see, but can be hard to trade without the help of an algorithm. Because algorithms take over for the mind and the minds inherent biases, many of the fears that plague discretionary trend followers do not effect algorithms. A common fear when riding a strong trend is that it is about to turn or end, but that fear is often unfounded. One of the first widely followed trend following algorithms looked to buy a 20-day price breakout and hold that trade until a 20-day price low took them out of the trade. The traders who have and still do employ this algorithmic approach and other similar approaches are often amazed at how long the strongest trends extend that they would have likely exited had their algorithms not managed the trade and exit on their behalf. News Trading: Another popular style of trading in the archaic world of discretionary trading that now belongs to the Quants is news trading. These strategies scan high important news events and calculate what type of print relative to prior news events and expectations would be needed to place a trade. As you can imagine, the efficiency of receiving the data and calculating whether a trade should be placed in entering that trade is of key focus. This form of algorithmic trading often gets the lion share of media’s attention. Arbitrage:Arbitrage is a word that has multiple meetings and strategies built around the concept. Historically, you could have euros trading in London at a different price than in New York so that a trader could buy the lower and sell the higher until equilibrium had been established. Nowadays, arbitrage algorithm strategies are more geared to highly correlated assets whose underlying fundamental effects are very similar. When a wide spread in value between the highly correlated assets are recognized, the algorithm will either by the lower and or sell the higher until an equilibrium is met similar to the mean reversion strategy. High-Frequency Trading and Scalping: For our purposes, will look at these as synonymous even though trading desks and hedge funds view them separately. True high-frequency trading attempts to beat out other traders to the thousand of a second and to do so some firms position their computers next door to an exchange to see in one millisecond faster than a competitor if something is rising by a penny. Unless you’re looking to buy a house next to the New York Stock Exchange to compete with billion-dollar hedge funds, short-term trading or scalping is likely more up your alley. Even this term has evolved over time whereas traders use to look to make profits on the difference in the bid-ask spread but now has taken a wider meeting for very short-term traits. For more information about algorithmic trading, click here
LIQNET A CRYPTOCURRENCY EXCHANGE WITH THE UNIQUE LIQUIDITY POOLING TECHNOLOGY LIQNET SPECIFICS THE LEN MECHANISM (LIQUIDITY EXCHANGE NETWORK) LEN (Liquidity Exchange Network) is what makes our exchange unique. This mechanism allows collecting and aggregating buy/sell orders through APIs of 1,2...n exchanges located anywhere in the world and forming a unified order book.LIQNET is a cryptocurrency exchange that uses a unique liquidity gathering mechanism. Find out how it works today in our review.What Is LIQNET? LIQNET, found online at LIQNET.com, gathers liquidity from other exchanges and allows traders to access this liquidity through a single dashboard. You can take advantage of arbitrage opportunities between exchanges. Or, you can simply use LIQNET to access more liquidity. The system revolves around the united limit order book, or LOB. You access this order book through the professional LIQNET interface. LIQNET was announced on April 24, 2018. The company is expecting to launch a token sale in May or June 2018. How Does LIQNET Work? LIQNET revolves around its limit order book, or LOB, and its LEN mechanism. The Liquidity Exchange Network, or LEN, mechanism prevents liquidity fragmentation by pooling bids and orders from different exchanges. Instead of accessing liquidity from a single cryptocurrency exchange, you can access liquidity from multiple exchanges using the same professional LIQNET dashboard. The main benefit of this higher liquidity is that traders can enjoy a lower bid/ask spread. LEN collects and pools orders from exchange customers like you. Then, it connects those orders with orders from other platforms, creating a single depth of market panel. Orders are collected and then made available for trading to all LIQNET exchange customers. Using the public APIs of cryptocurrency exchanges, LEN polls them for purchase and sale bids, forming a single depth of market panel for its customers and allowing traders to find the best prices at minimal spread. You can access LIQNET through your desktop browser or a mobile app. LIQNET Features & Benefits LIQNET emphasizes all of the following features and benefits: No Slippage: High liquidity allows users to reduce or fully eliminate the costs of slippage. Expenses Reduction: The higher the market liquidity is, the smaller the bid/ask spread will be, which thereby lowers the cost of trading. Trust: LIQNET’s liquidity “reflects the presence of a mass of people whose actions are much easier to predict than the actions of a single person,” explains the official website, which means that a single entity can’t dominate the trading market. Decentralization: LIQNET claims to be built on a decentralized system because their physical hardware is located in two different data centers, including centers in France and Canada. This isn’t what we typically mean by “decentralization”, although we understand what LIQNET is getting at. Security: LIQNET holds customers’ funds in multiple locations, including hot wallets, multi-signature wallets, and cryptocurrency exchanges. This reduces the risk of theft. Multiple Trading Options: LIQNET supports direct trading from the financial chart and scalping trades (including post limit and stop orders right from the order book). Multiple Order Types: LIQNET supports stop order trades, stop limit trades, TP & SL trades, trailing stop trades, Iceberg, IFD, OCO, IFDOCO, valid till day/time trades, AON, IOC, and FOK trades. Financial Charts: LIQNET provides a suite of analysis tools. Users can also customize their dashboard with 100+ different trading indicators. Multiple Currency Pairs: Right now, LIQNET lists just four cryptocurrency pairs, including LTC/BTC, ETH/BTC, BCH/BTC, and PPC/BTC. However, they allow users to deposit more currencies, including bitcoin, Litecoin, USD, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, DASH, and Peercoin (PPC). LIQNET Fees A number of cryptocurrency exchanges aggregate liquidity from across different exchanges. So what makes LIQNET special? What kind of fees can you expect to pay? Here are some of the notable fees as listed on the LIQNET fees page: Trading Fees: 0.2% taker fee, 0.1% maker fee Deposit Fees: 0 (0% deposit fees on all deposit options, including bitcoin, Litecoin, USD, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, DASH, and Peercoin). Withdrawal Fees: 0.0001 BTC, 0.01 LTC, 0.01 USD, 0.01 ETH, 0.01 BCH, 0.01 DASH, and 0.01 PPC. The LIQNET ICO LIQNET is expecting to launch a crowdsale in May / June 2018. That crowdsale will consist of a closed pre-sale and an open ICO. Further details of the token sale have not yet been announced. LIQNET has partnered with Como Capital to launch their ICO. It’s unclear how LIQNET tokens will work. However, tokens launched by other cryptocurrency exchanges typically provide a discount on trading fees. You might only pay 0.1% or 0.5% trading fees when paying with LIQNET’s tokens, for example.Who’s Behind LIQNET? LIQNET was created by a team of finance, law, and technology professionals with a proven track record in traditional investments and forex trading. Key members of the team include Roman Shirokov (CEO), Evgeny Tarasenko (CTO), and Vyacheslav Kasatkin. LIQNET was incorporated in 2015. The company is registered to an address in Singapore (10 Maxwell Road, Singapore). LIQNET Conclusion LIQNET is a cryptocurrency exchange that aggregates liquidity from a number of different exchanges across the internet. The goal is to reduce the bid/ask spread while offering users the highest liquidity across multiple order types and markets. Right now, LIQNET is in the early stages of launch. The exchange is not yet available online, although a desktop and mobile app are preparing to launch in the near future.
https://preview.redd.it/8uc3berff2g11.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=56b0505f79db9ada8014c84d345cd0c0025f14f5 The Best Six Crypto Trading Strategies Revealed Cryptocurrency also called digital currency, virtual currency or alternate currency is emerging as the future of money. The crypto world provides an enormous return on investment for traders to flourish and prosper. Due to the decentralized control and the blockchain technology, people find crypto trading to be more transparent as it doesn’t require a central authority. On the other hand, the crypto market is very sensitive and security breaches can happen at fraction of a second. There are many hacks that happened in the crypto market that shook the world. Bithumb was hacked at June 2018 and $30 million coins were stolen. These incidents are a mounting evidence which proves how violative is the cryptocurrency market. This article will unveil the top trading strategies that can be used for both stock market and cryptocurrency trading. Scalping Scalping is the act of attaining huge profits on minor changes in the asset(coin). Traders who implement this strategy is called a “scalper”. Here the scalpers believe that small moves in the stock price can gain huge profits. The idea is to buy or sell a number of assets at the holding time and sell them higher or lower for a profit. This scalping strategy is perfect for intraday trading. Technical analysis has to be done before scalping and a scalper spends 8-10 hours in the forex market. A scalper should be proactive to take advantage of the fluctuations in the market. Scalping is more trending in the cryptocurrency market due to the fluctuations in the price of the tokens. Scalping if done statistically keeping in mind of avoiding late entries, overtrading and late exists, scalpers will be able to reap the desired profit in the cryptocurrency trading. Day trading Day trading is the most lucrative strategy for people in both the stock and crypto market. This trading is quite similar to the scalping method. The difference is in scalping there are hundreds of transactions done whereas in day trading only very few transactions are done. To be precise, day trading is buying or selling of assets on the same day, to make the most of the market fluctuations. Traders make the most from the minute changes of the price of the asset/coin. A day trader can make double the profit which means he or she can gain more money from the original money they have spend. Here the holding time is eliminated as the traders hold their assets to a maximum of 2 hours per day. This day trading strategy for cryptocurrency would work only if the market is stable. Range-bound trading Range-bound trading is the trading capitalizing on stocks in price channels. This trading is widely used by forex traders and other traders. The concept behind the range-bound trading is identifying the support and resistance areas in order to connect reaction highs and lows with a horizontal trendline. The reliability of the trendlines depends on the number of times the price has reacted to it. The method is traders repeatedly buy at the support trendline and sell at the resistance trendline until the security breaks out from a price channel. In range-bound trading, it is imperative for the traders to watch for potential breakouts and breakdowns. Swing trading Swing trading is similar to the day trading. In day trading the holding time of an asset is a maximum couple of hours a day whereas in swing trade the holding time can extend up to a week or couple of weeks. This type of trading involves in identifying the trends lows, highs and calculating the risk. Before jumping into the swing trading a lot of market analysis has to be done by the trader. A sound technical analysis is needed than day trading. Using this strategy in cryptocurrency is based on the estimation of the trend line and when it is going swing high. Position trading Position trading is also called as HOLDing, where an investor holds on his assets through its highs and lows without the intention to sell it. The concept of HOlDing is just buying the coins and put them in your wallet. The investors do not involve in any transactions from months to years and only sells his coins with his own intention or find a threat to his asset. A position trader is neither worried about the market fluctuations nor bothers of the daily, monthly news of the crypto market. This position trading is implemented once or twice a year which makes the trader a long-term investor. Arbitrage trading Arbitrage is the simplest method of trading. The concept behind this trading is buying a coin from an exchange where the price is lower and selling it in another exchange where the price is relatively high for that particular coin. The price difference marks the profit gain for the trader. This kind of trading is widely used in the crypto market as it doesn’t require any technical knowledge to perform it. Arbitrage trading can be automated and can be performed by a bot. This trading may present a lucrative window of opportunity to generate passive income for the newbies entering the cryptomarket.
https://preview.redd.it/6jp0w5x7f2g11.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc1ce04b711c2c83a05d4a1f3d9a963e43172a02 The Best Six Crypto Trading Strategies Revealed Cryptocurrency also called digital currency, virtual currency or alternate currency is emerging as the future of money. The crypto world provides an enormous return on investment for traders to flourish and prosper. Due to the decentralized control and the blockchain technology, people find crypto trading to be more transparent as it doesn’t require a central authority. On the other hand, the crypto market is very sensitive and security breaches can happen at fraction of a second. There are many hacks that happened in the crypto market that shook the world. Bithumb was hacked at June 2018 and $30 million coins were stolen. These incidents are a mounting evidence which proves how violative is the cryptocurrency market. This article will unveil the top trading strategies that can be used for both stock market and cryptocurrency trading. Scalping Scalping is the act of attaining huge profits on minor changes in the asset(coin). Traders who implement this strategy is called a “scalper”. Here the scalpers believe that small moves in the stock price can gain huge profits. The idea is to buy or sell a number of assets at the holding time and sell them higher or lower for a profit. This scalping strategy is perfect for intraday trading. Technical analysis has to be done before scalping and a scalper spends 8-10 hours in the forex market. A scalper should be proactive to take advantage of the fluctuations in the market. Scalping is more trending in the cryptocurrency market due to the fluctuations in the price of the tokens. Scalping if done statistically keeping in mind of avoiding late entries, overtrading and late exists, scalpers will be able to reap the desired profit in the cryptocurrency trading. Day trading Day trading is the most lucrative strategy for people in both the stock and crypto market. This trading is quite similar to the scalping method. The difference is in scalping there are hundreds of transactions done whereas in day trading only very few transactions are done. To be precise, day trading is buying or selling of assets on the same day, to make the most of the market fluctuations. Traders make the most from the minute changes of the price of the asset/coin. A day trader can make double the profit which means he or she can gain more money from the original money they have spend. Here the holding time is eliminated as the traders hold their assets to a maximum of 2 hours per day. This day trading strategy for cryptocurrency would work only if the market is stable. Range-bound trading Range-bound trading is the trading capitalizing on stocks in price channels. This trading is widely used by forex traders and other traders. The concept behind the range-bound trading is identifying the support and resistance areas in order to connect reaction highs and lows with a horizontal trendline. The reliability of the trendlines depends on the number of times the price has reacted to it. The method is traders repeatedly buy at the support trendline and sell at the resistance trendline until the security breaks out from a price channel. In range-bound trading, it is imperative for the traders to watch for potential breakouts and breakdowns. Swing trading Swing trading is similar to the day trading. In day trading the holding time of an asset is a maximum couple of hours a day whereas in swing trade the holding time can extend up to a week or couple of weeks. This type of trading involves in identifying the trends lows, highs and calculating the risk. Before jumping into the swing trading a lot of market analysis has to be done by the trader. A sound technical analysis is needed than day trading. Using this strategy in cryptocurrency is based on the estimation of the trend line and when it is going swing high. Position trading Position trading is also called as HOLDing, where an investor holds on his assets through its highs and lows without the intention to sell it. The concept of HOlDing is just buying the coins and put them in your wallet. The investors do not involve in any transactions from months to years and only sells his coins with his own intention or find a threat to his asset. A position trader is neither worried about the market fluctuations nor bothers of the daily, monthly news of the crypto market. This position trading is implemented once or twice a year which makes the trader a long-term investor. Arbitrage trading Arbitrage is the simplest method of trading. The concept behind this trading is buying a coin from an exchange where the price is lower and selling it in another exchange where the price is relatively high for that particular coin. The price difference marks the profit gain for the trader. This kind of trading is widely used in the crypto market as it doesn’t require any technical knowledge to perform it. Arbitrage trading can be automated and can be performed by a bot. This trading may present a lucrative window of opportunity to generate passive income for the newbies entering the cryptomarket.
Bots and talk of bots is endemic within the crypto space, with behavior, good and bad, often attributed to their actions. Mt Gox famously had the Willy Bot manipulating merrily, perennial bear Bitfinexed sees bots everywhere, and crypto traders are prone to boasting about the sick returns they’ve raked in from their proprietary arb bots. There’s no doubt that bot activity is very real. But is it profitable? Got Bots? In the 1950s, robots were promised that would soon eliminate the daily chores of housewives across the globe. 60 years later, and their cyber counterparts – bots – are promised that will do the same for crypto traders. If the hype is to be believed, these bundles of code can deliver a passive income for even the laziest or dumbest of traders. But as almost everyone knows, the hype is never to be believed. Profiting from bots isn’t that simple or easy. There are several types of trading bots available including arbitrage (arb) bots that capitalize on the difference in prices across exchanges. The price of bitcoin usually differs from exchange to exchange; Bitstamp, for example, typically displays a slightly lower price than Bittrex. The movements of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is always mirrored across exchanges, however, so if BTC breaks out due to a massive buy order on Binance, you can bet that the other exchanges will follow suit. Bots work by profiting from the delay it takes for prices to update across all exchanges. How Profitable Are Bots? To make any sort of tangible profit from bot trading, you ideally need a stack of crypto to start with. If you’re running a bitcoin arb bot, for example, you’ll need BTC deposited on multiple exchanges that are connected to your bot via API. And even if you do have a healthy spread of coins, the returns can be slight. Romano – Viacoin developer and well-known crypto trader – claims the Hass bot he uses can make “0.26 BTC ($2K) a day by using 9 BTC for example just by using market inefficiencies” before adding that he doesn’t use the market maker bot that comes with Hass and cautioning that it’s “only for skilled traders”. Arb trading can be likened to playing online poker. If you’re good at setting up your bots, you can make a living off it, but you’ve got to grind it out. Crypto trading bots are reminiscent of those money-making Forex programs that you find “veteran traders” trying to flog. If those Forex guys are as rich and successful as they profess to be, wouldn’t they be better served keeping that esoteric knowledge to themselves rather than offloading it to the masses for $100 a month? In other words, beware of geeks bearing bots. Examples of Trading Bots A slew of tokenized projects has emerged that promise “algorithmically-based smarter trading delivered via AI and machine learning” or words to that effect. These systems also utilize bots, but their claims of profitability have yet to be proven. If one of these new platforms were to deliver the goods and provide consistently high returns, crypto traders would flock to it, which simply hasn’t happened. There is no doubt that machine learning has the potential to yield more profitable trading, but there is also no doubt that a lot of the claims attributed to AI should be filed under As If. These are the most popular crypto bots on the market (and should only be tried at your own risk):
Cryptocurrency Trading Simplified with Money Trade Coin Group
The Money Trade Coin Group has initiated a training course program for cryptocurrency trading. Money Trade Coin will provide physical courses in countries such as UAE, Thailand, and Switzerland from May 15th Onwards. The courses will be of three days span long in each country and will teach cryptocurrency users more than just crypto trading but also divulge into concepts such as futures and derivatives in the FOREX market. Join the Trading Course No matter whether you are an amateur, an accomplished crypto trader, or someone willing to learn new skills in cryptocurrency, this physical course will benefit you greatly as it is created to expand knowledge on the subject. Using this training course crypto holders will be able to invest wisely in a very competitive platform in order to make profits and minimize any risks. What You Will Learn With the Crypto Training Course • How cryptocurrencies work and how to trade them • Profits and loss with cryptocurrencies • Tactics for effective cryptocurrency trading • An extensive tour of the market • What are Bitcoin and altcoins • Which coins you should buy and sell • How to store your coins • All about trading on the platform • Crypto exchanges and which ones you should use • Trading concepts and tools • Maximizing profit and risk management • What are the exact entry points, targets, and stop loss points • What support and resistance are in trading • How much research to do before starting your trading How do we stand out? With Money trade Coin Group you have ensured the best crypto training through our program and it is designed to cover all important aspects of cryptocurrency investment and trading on the platform. Our trainers and experienced traders have been involved in crypto trading for many years and hold impressive qualifications. Your progress throughout the course will be monitored and feedback will tell you where your strengths and weaknesses lie. You will not only know how to trade but also understand the concepts behind crypto trading, the entire market and exchange systems. You will be able to trust your own decisions and strategies instead of relying on news pages or forums for your information which may be outdated or incorrect. Learning the ropes can help in setting fixed targets for your trade, buying and selling, stop loss and more. Additionally, our course features futures and derivatives on the Foreign Exchange platform apart from MT4 software. By learning about the types of contracts you can buy and sell into, arbitrage, and hedging, you can minimize any risks you may come across trading in foreign currencies.
In response to : Are you embarrased to be trading for a living ?
Refer : http://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/2vrhgo/a_question_for_fulltime_homebased_forex_traders/ NO, you should not be embarrased to be trading for a living. He is talking as if you have a choice between trading and burger flipping. Not everyone makes money by trading. Its approximately a 0 sum game. Almost all traders loose money in the market and go back to burger flipping. Those who stay for 30 years are very very few. I think Wolf of the Wallstreet gives a very wrong Impression. Those guys in the movie are not traders, they were brokers. Traders have to work hard and are very disciplined, and yes they do help in discovering the price. You think the trader who sits in the bank can manipulate by trading 10 billion dollars. NO, he can't because he needs to get out of the market too. The quotes that you see on your screen have market depth of only a few million dollars. If you open a trade in billions, it will move the market. And if he guesses the market wrong he will loose money too. You will be surprised how evenly balanced the game is, big boys don't make money just because they have the big money. You are contributing by placing the right trades. Think about it : When a trader places the trade market moves, but by how much? Idk, but it moves differently at different prices. If you buy in bullish sentiment the market will rally with you. If you sell in bullish sentiment it will just eat your trade like a biscuit. Are you getting the Idea. If big fish buys at the wrong time, the market will move less in his favor. But if that bitch realises she is wrong, and then tries getting out at wrong time, the market will move like crazy against it. The Big fish will loose money. As you can see the smart small traders are playing a role by buying at the right places. It does not matterhow much you trade. What matters is the amount of money you make. The more money you make, more you contribute. Ofcourse its easier to make more money if you have more already. But then again you did not get that trading capital in charity. You started by flipping burgers and saved every penny. And you are risking that hard earned money for your trades. Note the word risk, its not like you are just getting paid for talking shit about the markets and all. Also HFT's are mostly used for doing "burger fliiping type tasks of trading" like arbitrage ( where speed matters). You are stupid of you think billions of dollars of trades can be entered and exited in fraction of seconds. I know where this question is coming from : you want to know what you are contributing to the society for which you are getting paid. This is a valid question, When I work for someone, I ask myself If I am creating enough value for my employer. Yes you are creating value if you are making money, as a trader your job is to make money. Read Market Wizards and try to earse that Wolf of Wallstreet picture of traders from mind. Disclaimer : I am still flipping burgers. But I read and spend time thinking on forex everyday. I do not trade because I do not have risk capital, I am 22 and still creating a safety net.
What would it take to arbitrage ETH or BTC between foreign currencies? I am thinking some type of international corp set up with a forex account? I have noticed as much as a 4% spread, more in times of panic between BTC and KRW or CNY for instance.
CS Senior: having difficulty staying motivated, unsure if my skill set will land me a job.
Little background: I am graduating from well known CUNY engineering school in June. I have a decent GPA (3.1 cumm , 3.3 in major), long story short was hit with a few very difficult professors in the last year which took a toll on my GPA, I say decent in that I know it could've been a point or or two higher. I don't think my GPA will hinder my ability to get a job ,so I will leave that out of the equation. I also have intern experience with a large telecom company doing network analysis. I have fairly good analytical skills and good at working with teams (I actually prefer working with other and bouncing ideas around). I have a strong interest in automotive, and would like to see where that could go for me, but I don't live in the region of automotive manufacturers and would prefer to stay home my first year or two. I am mainly taking interest into big data/ data science because of a course I am currently taking in Big Data. Aside from that I have started my job search fairly late, have gotten two legitimate interviews which I basically bombed both because I wasn't prepared. Although I know I bombed them I know what I did wrong and have taken them as learning experiences. Throughout my college career I have been a highly motivated student , but the last few months have been a huge decline from how I previously treated responsibilities. With that I know how to work and buckle down and get what I need to done. My Dilemma now is I feel like the job search is insanely difficult and is basically a roll of a dice, I feel like websites like Linkedin and Indeed are extremely overwhelming. It feels almost impossible to sift through the information and find jobs which I feel like I have a shot at being a match for. I typically search with keywords like software dev/engineer and python with the entry-level filter on. the majority of what is coming up is 3-5 year experience and I would say between 60-70% of jobs are looking for people that know some web development (which I have no experience in) . With this it's becoming fairly demotivating. So now I'm exploring ideas of gaining some type of big data certification and/or doing a coding boot camp primary with the goals of learning full-stack development. Any suggestions of comments are welcome. Courses (left out a lot but these are course from the last year and a half) Numerical Issues In Scientific Computing Computer Security Database Systems Big Data Mang. and Analysis Programming Language Paradigms Artificial Intelligence Operating Systems Computer Graphics ● Languages & Libraries: C++, C, Java, Python, Scheme/LISP, MySql, R, AWK, x86 Assembly. ● Software & Frameworks: GitHub, UNIX, OpenGL, Spark, Microsoft Office. ● Project Management, Research/Analytical Skills, Leadership, Detail-Oriented, Team Player Fin-Tech Hackathon ● Developed an AI security application that learns to identify emails which violate laws, regulations, or policies. ● Allows legal staff to generate a privileged email list to prevent specified email communications. ● Implemented using Python with Natural Language Processing (NLTK), Django and Heroku Tool kit. forex arbitrage with streams ● Used to streams in a functional programming application, which evaluates forex arbitrage opportunities. ● Implemented using Scheme. PyFlight Finder ● Developed a GUI based flight finding application to optimize fares and scheduling. ● Implemented using Python and Google Flights QPX Express API. Network intern May 2016 – August 2016 ● Compared and contrasted the performance of various classes of traffic on the IP backbone. ● Analyzed packet loss data on core, aggregation, and core to edge links to determine quality of service. ● Created and executed AWK scripts to parse and analyze packet loss. ● Supported network automation and testing using Automation software by creating and executing test cases on the network.
Risk arbitrage is also called merger arbitrage because there is the purchase of stocks during a merger and acquisition. There are different classifications of arbitrage, and hence different types of arbitrage involved. One classification includes: Financial arbitrage: Financial arbitrage typically refers to forex arbitrage trading. Forex arbitrage, or “two currency arbitrage,” is achieved when you buy a currency pair in an exchange that offers a lower price, and then sell the same pair in another exchange at a higher price. For example, assume you have accounts with two different brokers and they offer a slightly different price for EUR/USD; broker X has an exchange rate of 1.1010 while broker Y has a rate of 1.10. Types of arbitrage – forex arbitrage opportunities. Forex arbitrage can be classified into three main categories. Two currency arbitrage involves making a profit from the differences in the prices quoted for the currency pairs; It does not consider the differences in the prices of the currencies in the pair which is considered. Triangular arbitrage utilizes the differences in the prices of ... MYTS Forex Trading Guide ... While arbitrage usually refers to trading opportunities in financial markets, there are also other types of arbitrage opportunities covering other tradeable markets. Those include risk arbitrage, retail arbitrage, convertible arbitrage, negative arbitrage and statistical arbitrage. Risk arbitrage – This type of arbitrage is also called merger arbitrage, as it ... Types of arbitrage. There are three main types of forex arbitrage: Two-currency arbitrage is the exploitation of the different quotes of two currency pairs instead of the differences in price between two currencies in the same pair; Covered interest arbitrage is a trading strategy in which a trader exploits the interest rate differential between two countries, while using a forward contract as ... Types of Forex Arbitrage Strategies 1: Forex Triangular Arbitrage. This type of arbitrage looks for differences in currency exchange rates. The strategy focuses on three currency pairs extremely close to each other like the EurUsd, GbpUsd, and EurGbp. In this, the profits you earn depend on how quick you are at selling the pairs at the highest price point you’ll get. 2: Forex Swap Arbitrage ... The main objective of all the different types of arbitrage strategies is to exploit the inefficiencies in the market. If the markets were perfectly efficient, there would be no arbitrage opportunities. Arbitrage has an advantage of providing you with almost risk free profit but the profit earned is very small. Hence only hedge funds and large institutional investors are capable of taking ...
Spot Rate, Forward Rate, Appreciation & Depreciation of ...
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